Mila Kunis as a contrarian stock market indicator?
Mila Kunis has become one of the most popular Hollywood actresses of the young generation. At 29, she is not anymore the Jackie of "That '70s Show" that introduced her to the American public. Or, at least, that's where I first saw her. This show is the only sitcom that rivals Seinfeld, in my opinion, and I say so as a die-hard Seinfeld fan.
Originally from the Ukraine, she came to the US at a tender age of 7 and with no knowledge of the English language started her school education in the very same town she made her career years later, the very City of Angels.
Her middle school, by Las Palmas, one block south of Santa Monica Blvd in Hollywood, is only about 10 minutes walking from my place and I happen to pass by it about once a week. Which is another way of saying how well I know her.
This March, Mila Kunis gave a brief interview to CNBC in which she said that she has "been pushed kind of forward to take chances, and I'm learning a little bit about the stock market and companies."
Well, I see nothing wrong with that and yet, rather surprisingly to me, this was greeted by some as a contrarian indicator pointing to the near end of this bull market. I will not mention the names of "the greeters" as people with thousands of followers on Twitter are the type of people only the herd follows and as a true contrarian I think I can safely discount them as irrelevant. Call me opinionated, but I believe I am right and they are wrong.
They are wrong because one Mila Kunis or even two (or five, for that matter) are simply not enough to draw such conclusions. I must say that I have been somewhat bearish on the near future of this bull market and even said something to this effect on my blog. More precisely, I was a bit surprised by the strength of this bull market despite a rather slow US economy.
But that does not mean that the bull market will not continue in the years to come. In fact, considering the general bearish sentiment, as I read it, and the fact that the stock market is a leading economic indicator, when this economy finally starts rolling (as the stock market seems to be predicting), we may have one heck of a bull market once again despite all the bears saying how stupid it is of bulls to keep buying or even holding stocks.
It is only when the last bear joins the bulls when the market reaches its peak. We are clearly very far from this euphoric stage that practically every bull market reaches sooner or later. I have seen two such bull markets as an active trader, so I am speaking from experience. I am speaking about the stage when things simply cannot possibly go down, but only up. From the perspective of a man on Main Street.
Remember all those speculators betting on the home prices going only up. Some people lost fortunes this way. Not so long ago. They are still licking their wounds. You don't see them back yet. When they arrive and Twitter is abuzz with their messages, it will be a sign of the peak. Until then, it is safer to bet on the long side more often than not and I say so as a day trader with a clear short bias.
For me, then, that means being a bit more cautious with my shorts and more aggressive with my longs. I mean it seriously. The strength of this market right now is definitely on the long side, even intraday, though during some swift downside corrections you can do well on the short side as well.
So don't sell your stocks yet and definitely not if you are in it for a longer haul as you should be as this is by far the best strategy when it comes to playing the stock market. This and the proper diversification. If you can't afford both, you may try day trading, but proceed with caution because that too can be a risky proposition if you approach it unprepared.
In the name of a full disclosure, I should state that I am not a financial adviser and even have yet to play one on TV despite having lived in Hollywood for over 13 years now. What I said above is merely my opinion and I have been wrong before. I think, though, that 2 years from now, I will have been vindicated as being right on the money and those cheap shot shooters who target Mila Kunis or other, more or less popular celebrities, will have been proven wrong.
See you in two years then.
Posted on March 17th, 2013.