George IV - Notices (2008)
(12/01/08)
Another good day in the life of citizen George IV. Because who can really complain about another 18 points? Heck, Bill collects only 6 pointers and he is doing just fine. And it was one hell of a day for those trading KING. It's like shooting fish in a barrel. On the other hand, I even don't trade KING on days like that. It's so not humanitarian. I mean, let's face it: Mr. Market has feelings too... That's why George IV is so useful for KING traders or rather that's why Mr. Market does not talk to George IV any more. Yeah, it's that serious... And no, I don't think George IV is planning to quit working any time soon. At least, that's what he says. In fact, he recently got into that New Age thing and now he claims that 2012 will be the year in which he will make everyone richer than Bill Gates. Well, I am not sure how to comment on that, but as long as he is more useful than Sylvia Brown, I decided to tolerate it...
(11/12/08)
So after 4 trades so far this month, we have had 2 winners, and we are up for the month quite nicely. Bill continues to smile as he has just pocketed a third winner in a row, but that is nothing compared to our two 18 pt wins in the 18 point category. These winners would have not been possible without some change I have made recently that should make catching such monsters easier. And so far it's been doing just that. Life is good...
(10/31/08)
I have no choice but to continue sounding like a broken record. Yes, another great day to exploit what this system offers, another great, long lasting trend identified.
(10/20/08)
I am beginning to sound like a broken record, but yes, indeed, yet another day you would have made a killing on with just the very basic elements of this system in a way mentioned here so many times that I will not mention it again. It was a nice trending day, just as George IV would have called it and if you can't make money on a day like that, you just can't make money...
(10/17/08)
Another good day to make loads of money with this system by using it to indicate a strong market bias, this time long, which was present for the most of the trading session.
(10/15/08)
We came very, very close to having another winner. Alas, not close enough, just a few ticks short. But the trade would have been good, which is yet another indication that this is very decent system... And since the strong short bias indicated by the system was present since the very open, it was easy to make good money on the short side...
(10/13/08)
Yes, that was another good day...
(10/06/08)
Today we had a near perfect entry in both markets and the results are... well, as usual, which means that my "nearly 75%" should now be understood as 9 winners out of 10. I am beginning to like this new math... I am thinking about changing the name of this system, or at least giving it some cool Internet handle. I think nearly75%! would be cool... Other options I am also considering: "chick_magnet" (pretty self-explanatory), "more_than_just_a_chick_magnet" (well, probably too long, but true nevertheless), "huge_chick_magnet" (yes, this must have to do with chicks...).
(10/04/08)
I just got this email from one of my satisfied customers, Martin, who bought both George II and George IV. Martin was quick to point out that based on the past 10 trades, George IV's winning ratio is 80% in the 6 point target category! Well, I admit, I should have paid more attention to this, but honestly, I don't care: 75% is already so much better than what most other systems can do. And, at least, no one can accuse me of overhyping this system. So, while "nearly 75%" I mention on the sales page is a slight understatement, I am cool with it. But, there is more. It's not the winning rate that tells the whole story. I know of some big hype artist, who sells his crapware for about the same I sell George IV, and who never gets tired of mentioning his "system" 75% winning rate. You know why? Because when all is said and done, that's about the only thing that can impress you: his "system" has totally paltry profits to show for. Let's see how much in profit you would have made in George IV over the past 10 trades if you wanted to adopt Bill's trading style. Out of the 10 trades in question, 6 reached the target of 6 points, so there was no slippage here whatsoever. On the remaining 4 trades, the slippage could be at most 2 ticks, or $25 per trade, which amounts to $100 in total. The profit before the slippage and commissions was 25.5 pts or $1275 per contract. The total profit on these 10 trades after commissions of $5 per RT and slippage would then be $(1275-50-100)=$1125 per contract. That's more than $100 per trade per contract. The system is still $200. Do I need to comment on anything here? Yes, I know that my low hype diet may not be for everyone, but I don't target dummies and suckers, if only because the competition in this niche is already too big...
(10/02/08)
Another day, another victory. In both markets. Bill has been now on a winning streak of 6 trades since early August, so I presume, he still continues to smile. Incidentally, this was preceded by two losing trades in a row. That's how you get this 75% winning ratio.
(9/29/08)
Yet another great day for ES. So far this month, we have had 3 winners in all target categories, and so Bill, in particular, continues to smile. Now, 3 winners may not sound like a lot, yet if you realize that we have had only 3 trades this month, things do look quite differently. But, today was an awful day for YM. Not only did we get shaken out of our position with a loss, but shortly after that the market dropped really bad and fast and we would have easily pocketed 180 pts which is our maximum target. Because of that, it feels like a double loss in YM, although we are still up for the month in this market. And we got shaken out of our position by literally a few ticks. Since in the recent past, this has happened to ES more than once, it was apparently high time for YM to experience the same. Still, considering how volatile the markets have been this month, I don't think we have a particular reason to complain. This system produces very few losers, and hardly ever more than 2 in a row, which also means that if you start trading it right after two consecutive losses, you stand a good chance to get ahead rather easily. For instance, had you done so the last time a situation like that presented itself in ES in early August, you would have been up almost 30 pts by now in Bill's target category. Incidentally, today YM was so much out of sync with ES, failing to make a lower low at the time ES did, that to me it looked like a manipulation by some greater power, which gave up the moment it became obvious there was no chance for the bailout measure to be approved by the House. Oh, well... a double victory would have been so much nicer...
(9/26/08)
Yet another example of switcheroo in action. Pure classic. Yes, I do have a neat strategy for things like that. Practically a system, with the entry and exit precisely defined, but I will add it only to version 2.0, and if I do this sooner, the price will have to go up to $250 immediately. Or even to $275. It's that good. Moreover, it can easily be applied to other situations as well, not only those of the switcheroo or pullback type suggested by George IV. Today that switcheroo system would have made you an easy 6 pt profit in ES, and yesterday you would have made the same in a similar kind of pullback to our favorite moving average. The profits you make with this very conservative system are only a tip of an iceberg. Much more can be squeezed out of the market using the system elements in a creative way. I keep alluding to this in the system manual by adding new ideas to it and keep preaching about it here, so that you learn how to take advantage of it.
(9/25/08)
Only two trades so far this month, but both winners in a very volatile month when it was so easy to lose money. Today was another good day for this system, both in YM and ES. By the way, that pullback to improve the entry (introduced just recently, in version 1.8) worked very well today as well and would have added about 2.5 pt to the larger target, although it would have made no difference to your reaching 6 pts, except for getting you there faster. So if you read my entry on 9/04/08, you will see that I was right about this little improvement paying for the system. It's not official yet, but it will become so in version 2.0. Only 8 copies at $200 left, when they are gone, the price will never reach this level again. Oh, and then we also got that fabulous bounce off of our favorite moving average again. Mr. Market loves our moving average so much that it would probably be easy to create a simple system based just on such bounces...
(9/12/08)
Yet another switcheroo (I got this term from Seinfeld, my favorite TV show) and a host of good trading opportunities indicated by the the system bias. George IV is not a Holy Grail, but there is no such a thing, anyway. Still, how often do you get a system that has not had 3 losing trades in a row since February? And whose indicators, if used in the system spirit, like today or yesterday, show you good solid trading opportunities that even a child could take advantage of.
(9/11/08)
No trade today per system rules as we don't trade on rollover days, but we got a nice switcheroo that could have been very nicely exploited as it gave rise to a good trend in the afternoon. I mentioned situations like that before in the system manual and here as well. And, to top this off, we also got a nice bounce of our favorite moving average. If you still don't know what the favorite moving average of successful traders is, you can get this knowledge and more for only $200. Still...
(9/08/08)
Today was one of those days when you were not supposed to take a trade because of the system rules that I added after the system release. And that was indeed a good idea as otherwise we would have lost 9 pts on this trade. I have not made that many modifications to this system since its release, but those I have made turned out to be pretty much on the money. They mean fewer but better trades.
(9/04/08)
Yet another good day in the life of George IV, particularly in YM, although we made money in ES too in all target categories. So who says that this system is not worth some paltry $200 or even $250? Come on... All it takes to recoup the purchase of this system is one good trade in the 5 or 6 pt target category and those happen more often than 70 % of the time. Incidentally, the latest improvement to the entry introduced in version 1.8 would have made us some extra money, too. I think this little improvement itself is likely to pay for the system (probably several times over) only over the next few months.
(8/28/08)
We added a few more points today as well, so everything seems to indicate that we will close this month in the positive territory in all major target categories in ES and YM, especially in the original target category. In YM we are a bit over 90 pts with only 5 trades in the said original target category, so it's definitely another good month for this market. BTW, only one more copy of the system left at $200.
(8/22/08)
Okay, one more and a winner in both YM and ES, so the system is really not that dead.
(8/21/08)
Not much action in this system this month, only 4 trades so far, the last one being on August 13th. I will send the updates by the end of this month with some ideas and some clarifying stuff included, which will constitute ver 1.8 of the system. I am really busy working on KING. Now, speaking of ideas, today was a good opportunity to use some idea I mentioned in ver 1.3 which has to do with the reversal of trend as indicated by change in the alignment of moving averages followed hitting a very important P line. Had you taken advantage of this idea today, you would have added 10 pts to your bottom line with a long entry about 1270. The previous time such an opportunity presented itself (on 7/22/08), the result would have been -5 pts and +10 pts, although the first loss could have been avoided by adjusting the initial stop-loss to 6 pts at the time the price was approaching the major moving average of the system from which it often bounces. I like to adjust my stop by 1 pt in such cases as this is usually a good idea, a good reward for a small additional risk. It probably makes more sense to trail the stop with a 5 pt offset after the 5 pt advance if you are after a bigger target of 10 pts, and not as I originally suggested in ver 1.3.
(8/07/08)
So yes, July was poor, but who says August has to be the same? We are now up over 100 pts in YM after only 2 trades and in a very positive territory in ES after 3 trades. Life is good..., but the price of $200 won't last forever. With a system like that, drawdowns could be best used to start trading it in the optimal manner, so perhaps we should be thankful for them.
(8/05/08)
While last month was nothing to write home about, largely due to a "freakish accident" which lead to 2 pts only instead of 12 pts, this system is still one resilient monkey: it's very hard to have 3 losing trades in a row. And so this time after two losses in a row, we again posted a profit even if modest. The last time George IV recorded three consecutive losses was way back in February. And again, our luck is better in YM, which is due to somewhat greater volatility in ES. That's what caused our "freakish accident" last month, that is, being stopped out prematurely. This did not happen in YM, though.
(6/26/08)
John got another 10 pts today and Bill pocketed his 6 pts as well. But had you let the market roll until the closing bell, you would have made over 10 pts quite easily. Not a bad day, at all. Bill is over 30 pts this month. Sure, not every month is like that for Bill, just his second one with 30 pts or better. Since February, 2008.
(6/20/08)
Another great day, not only for Bill, but even for John. Yes, that would be 10 pts, if John is to be happy. Bill is much easier to please. We are now totally in the positive territory for all target categories as far as June is concerned, and Bill has been on a serious pillage all this month.
(6/18/08)
Did you notice how skillfully we avoided a big loss yesterday? Now, that's one of those rare modifications to the system that I have made since its release that we should thank for it. And today, did you notice another bounce off of our magic line, mentioned here quite a few times already? You could probably make money trading bounces like that alone. Particularly if combined with some other of George IV elements. Moreover, today we scored another 5/6 pts, so Bill is certainly happy again, that's over 20 pts this month for Bill's strategy. Unfortunately, we cannot say the same about John's strategy that is clearly on the receiving end these days, but this can change soon. We got stopped out again while going after bigger targets, like John's, but had we stuck to the original stop-loss we would have closed the business with a profit. Which is one more example that the system gets the entries just fine, but sometimes it's the stop-loss that is too tight. Now, I am sometimes asked why the stop-loss trailing offset in this system is so large. Well, you know what? The right question seems to be: why is it not even larger? Because, for instance, last month, had we decided not to trail the stop-loss at all, we would have ended up with about 50 pts more in profits when going after bigger targets. If I remember this number correctly. And that's quite a difference. These days, the market seems to range a lot, so it makes sense either to go after 5/6 pts only to avoid being stopped out later on or to stick to the original stop-loss and let the market take care of the profits. That is, in fact, the basic idea behind this system. The market is very eager to take care of the profits after the system's signals are triggered, as long as we allow it enough room to evolve. This idea still seems to work quite well, but it's the stop-loss that needs to be wider. Or else we need to be taking profits faster.
(6/11/08)
Man, Mr. Market does love a good drama. It kept battling us since the very moment we put on this trade and the battle was raging all over the place. It was only in the last hour of the daily session that we finally made some progress scoring victories in 5/6 pt target departments and quite a few points for the larger targets as well. That's the fourth winning trade in the 6 pt target category this month. Out of 4 trades total! Bill must be smiling again. And I can't believe that I still have 6 copies for $175 left. Well, on the other hand, that's only six.
(6/06/08)
Hmm... And what did I just say about smaller targets during the summer time? Like being preferable? See my previous post. Well, that now would be 3 times 6 pts equals 18 pts, but at least we are in the positive territory for the larger targets too. And again, it was possible to score much more if it were not for this pesky stop. I will have to do something about it.
(6/05/08)
After two trades this month we are 12/10 pts up in the 6/5 pt target category, but only at a breakeven for larger targets. Well, the market sometimes is tricky. For instance, today, we could have scored well over 10 pts had the market not taken a dive to one of our main indicators. It pretty much rebounded off of this line, which is not so accidental as you probably know by now. In the long run, the larger targets should do better overall, although during the summer time smaller targets might be preferable. Also, the market volatility is not as great as it was last year, but this can still change.
(5/19/08)
Well, again we came very close to another trading opportunity, but a critical line was not hit before some critical time, although we got very close to it. A discretionary trade would have given us a few points, but not enough even for the first target. In one of the future updates of the system, I will show you how to treat such borderline cases in a more systematic manner using the system elements.
(5/15/08)
Notice how today SMA stayed all day long above the LMA, forming a clear double bottom above it. What followed was a nice strong upside move.
(5/14/08)
We have had only one trade so far this month, which shows that the market is rather congested these days. Today we came very close to another one. It was a borderline case, if there ever was one. Taking it would have given us an easy 5/6 pt profit, or pretty much a breakeven, at best, had we decided to go after 10/18 pts. I think that's yet another indication that the system is sound. Incidentally, the simplified version of George II was also supporting this trade, more in spirit than in principle, though. In borderline cases like that, it makes sense to go after 5/6 pts, although that would be a discretionary decision, not per the strict mechanical rules of the system. I am working on yet another update of the system that will feature some extra idea or two that you could use within the system framework. Stay tuned then.
(4/16/08)
Yet another perfect trade. And I really mean it. Virtually no move against us and 15 pts by the market close if you were after a bigger fish or "only" 10 pts if you are a "John Schwab conservative." (Just kidding, John!) I really think that I am a bit of a sucker for giving this system away for only $175, but who says that this price is going to last forever. Now, since the system release, in late November 2007, you would have made about 42 pts if you had targeted 10 pts with your trades or about 62 pts had you had the guts to go after 15 pt targets. That would have taken only 32 trades. We are talking about trades in real life and not some hypothetical crap like most of the other stuff on the Internet. We are talking about thousands of dollars with one contract only! And the system is not even $200!
(4/01/08)
How do you spell "beautiful?" Hey, how about "George IV?" Today this bad boy showed again what it is capable of and 10 and even 15 pts was no problem for it. It was one of those practically perfect situations where you have absolutely no doubt and you have no need to double check anything to know that you have an entry. And what an entry it was! Last month we did better in the 15 pt target category and it's quite likely that we will repeat it this month. Moreover, the version with the original set of stop-loss/target parameters in its most ambitious form of 9/18 pts continues to do well too beating the "official" version suggested by John Schwab in the 3 out of last 4 months, which means again that the system is likely to do well for large targets. That's how it was intended, but the thing is, which I also mentioned before, that how you choose your stop-loss/target parameters is not really that critical, so you can try the original version (which I still track in the spreadsheet that comes with the system) or you can stick to John's version. Or you can devise your own parameters if you feel more adventurous or simply experienced in this department. Yep, that's a good system, but probably not for those who never tire of jerking around with 2 tick targets...
(3/27/08)
Today was another good day that gave us 10 more points, so we are now firmly in the positive territory in all target categories, but I mainly want to comment on what happened yesterday. Namely, yesterday we got very close to putting on one more profitable trade, but the entry point happened to be a little outside the proper range. By 1-2 ticks, literally. Something very much like that happened also in the first week of March and will most likely happen in future as well, so it makes a lot of sense to see if we could take advantage of that instead of simply refraining from taking a position. There could be at least two ways to approach this. One is by improving your entry by 2 pts and targeting 6 pts with an initial stop-loss of 4 pts being trailed accordingly, say after a 4 pt advance with a 6 pt offset. Another way is to wait for the price to retest the opening price in the afternoon. If it rejected there and the original bias still holds, it makes sense to enter at the same price as the price of the original entry. Yesterday, using the first approach would have given us 6 pts, while using the second one would have given us a bit over 8 pts. Another point I want to make here is that the last two days showed again that the system identifies the market bias very well. Sometimes, it may not exploit it as fully as one would like it, but that's the issue with virtually all mechanical systems.
(3/25/08)
After 9 trades this month, the system is up 15 pts, but only with trades that target 5 pts. In the 10 pt category, the standard one that I refer to as the John Schwab strategy, the results are not so good, about the breakeven. This is due to the fact that the market went through a lot of zigzags this month some of which resulted in the trailing stop-loss being triggered before the target of 10 pts (and in some cases even 15 pts) was reached. That was the case on at least two occasions that could have added over 15 pts in total. Sometimes, you are just not lucky enough... The positive thing is that the system continues to select good trades or else we would be down in all target categories.
(2/29/08)
We are closing this month on a very positive note thanks to Julius Caesar who is responsible for the leap day. It came in very handy indeed producing a decisive 10 pt win, and 15 pts was possible too. However, the total monthly tally that consists of 6 trades is slightly negative, even though losing 4 pts (according to the John Schwab strategy) in rather trendless a month is no particularly big deal. I am working on another upgrade to the system that will hopefully make it even more robust. Stay tuned then.
(2/06/08)
Not much action over the last two weeks or so, but the system made money in December and in January, its first two complete months since it was released. And we are up 10 pts in February after one winning trade this week. This is according to the John Schwab strategy. There were a few good opportunities for trades where the system came close to a signal, but one condition was still missing, so no trades were entertained. However, over the time, once you get used to the system patterns, I am sure you will be tempted to take trades like that too. Like, for instance, on the first day of this month, where the main elements for this kind of entry were present except for one and had you taken the trade at the right time, you would have scored 10 pts quite easily. That's what is good about this system, namely, that it will grow on you.
(1/23/08)
As in the last note here: close, but the same condition as before was not met again, although in a different way. No system is perfect, that's why I like to call George IV a strategy to encourage thinking a bit outside the box and taking educated chances when only one condition is not met while all others are. But I will still keep counting the P/L according to the strict system rules, so no points today, although 10 pts or even 15 pts could have been scored today had we taken this trade at the point indicated by the system.
(1/17/08)
We came very close to what would have been an excellent trade (an easy 10 pts) had we taken it as recommended by the system, except that one condition was not met by a rather narrow margin. So close, but no cigars... or something.
(1/15/08)
No trade today, but there was an excellent trade generated by the simplified version of George II which I recently (in the last week of last year) recommended to those who had bought George IV from me. It is indeed a very good idea to use the simplified version of George II in combination with George IV. Today, had you done so, you would have ended up with an extra half a grand using one contract only. Don't tell me that trading is hard. If it is, that's because you are using wrong tools!
(1/10/08)
No trade today, but notice where the market found the support during the pullback following its early afternoon surge. Surprised? Well, I mentioned this before, so perhaps you shouldn't be. Also, notice some subtle changes in the moving averages configuration before the afternoon breakout. They were the indication that the market was getting ready for a nice uptrend and the uptrend did follow... To make money day trading, you don't have to watch that many things, just a few important ones. And it's definitely good to know which ones. Simplifying things works better than complicating them.
(1/08/08)
We got close today... But no trade nevertheless if one adhered to the system rules. If you made a mistake, though, and took a trade, or were inspired by George II which would have helped to make a pretty strong case for that trade, then you would have ended up with 1 or 10 pts depending on where you got filled. A mere one tick of difference in the fill would have made such a huge difference in the result. That's how non-linearity manifests itself in the markets. Sometimes this effect is called the butterfly effect. Google it if you want more info about it.
(1/04/08)
Excellent day! Everybody should have gotten at least 10 pts today and even 15 pts if you were really after impressing your cat or dog or some other significant one. Remember that stop trailing was not as tight today as it was two days ago. However, if the price advances to 14.5 pt and the 10 pts was not scored in one straight swing but two, then you may want to be more protective of your profits at this particular moment and set the stop-loss at 13 pt from the entry, so that you don't end up with a "paltry" 5.5 pointer. Just a practical piece of advice which would have worked out today giving you only 13 pts instead of 15 (assuming you were really keen on getting 15), but that's okay too. I will definitely not call you "chicken little" if you leave 2 pts out of 15 on the table... I promise...
(1/02/08)
Wow, what a day! We did get a trade and we almost scored 10 pts. Let me explain the "almost" part. Hypothetically, based on my data, I could claim 10 pts on this trade, and if you were lucky enough you could get just as much on this one single trade today. But if you were unlucky by just one tick, you would have probably ended up with only 3.5 pt per the system rules, which, obviously, is not particularly close to 10 pts. Now, most people would have gotten 3.5 pts and since I do not believe in gimmicky, creative accounting, I am not going to claim more than that for the official record. It is not the first time that I am going so conservative since the system was released. I could have claimed more points on the first trade after the system release, but decided to be conservative too. I don't want my clients to feel shortchanged in any way, so I prefer to take an extra step and lower the profits rather than to hike them even if "legally" I could quite easily do this. Here is some important thing: whenever the market is as extended as it was today at the time of the entry, you may want to be more proactive in protecting your profits when you are around 9.5 pts (assuming your target is 10 pts). A good idea is to place your stop at 7.5 pt, for instance. The way I keep track of the system performance is totally mechanical so that its results are objective, but you don't have to do this like that: you may want to be a bit more creative if conditions require it. And here is some wicked thing, which, obviously, has to feature our beloved Mr. Market: had we adhered to our stop of 10 pts all the time after the entry (no stop trailing), we would have ended up with, well, you probably guessed it already, 10 pts later on! That's Mr. Market's way of telling us who is the boss here. Hint: it's not you or me... But don't worry: this Old Bastard is really not that hard to beat... Notice also, where the pullback ended up today and compare it to 12/31/07. Do you see the importance of LMA? You will most likely be seeing more things like that in future.