George IV - Notices (2014)

(1/06/14)

I restarted the notices whose main purpose was always to report on the system performance. I intend to keep posting here through the entire year, at least once a month unless there are no trades in a given month, but the trades reported here will be limited to the system basic entry, which is the original entry the system was launched with and the one most likely to do well even in less than optimal for this system volatility conditions. I revived this system in 2013 with several posts on its performance on my e-mini futures blog. See this article for some summary of its performance in 2013 and another one for why it makes sense to own this system. While the performance reported here will be limited to the strictly mechanical results, I will also try to highlight the benefits of using this system for discretionary trading, especially in combination with KING. I have heard from more than one KING student that they do better on the days when George IV can offer its guidance.

If you are totally new to day trading e-mini futures, you may not know that 1 point in YM corresponds to $5 and 1 point in ES corresponds to $50. These numbers become quite round ($10 and $100, respectively) if you trade with 2 contracts, which many a retail trader should easily afford.

December 30th was the last trading day for this system in 2014. Overall, it traded on 36 days, 30 times in YM and 25 times in ES, with 21 winners in YM and 19 in ES, which amounts to very good winning rates of about 70% and 75%, respectively. The equity curves for both markets are posted below.

The 2014 equity curve for ES - 25 trades, 19 wins, +71.75 points

The 2014 equity curve for YM - 30 trades, 21 wins, +590 points

(12/30/14)

Trade #36: -21 (YM); no trade (ES). YTD: +590/+71.75 points. This was a short trade and it ended up as a loss, even if only slightly, while being in the black only 15 minutes before the daily session close. No trade in ES, though we came very close; it would have been a winner, so it was a bad luck. As of now, we have had 30 trades in YM and 25 in ES, with 6 losses in the latter and 9 in the former market, which amounts to about 70-75% of winners. We are very much up in both markets.

(12/23/14)

Trade #35: -10 (YM); no trade (ES). YTD: +611/+71.75 points. This was a long trade and it ended up on a losing side, even if only slightly. We avoided a trade in ES due to the TBA rule; it would have been a very tiny loss. As of now, we have had 29 trades in YM and 25 in ES, with 6 losses in the latter and 8 in the former market, which amounts to about 75% of winners. We are very much up in both markets.

(12/22/14)

Trade #34: +19 (YM); no trade (ES). YTD: +621/+71.75 points. This was a long position and it landed in the positive territory at the market close, coming only several points short of the maximum profit. As of now, we have had 28 trades in YM and 25 in ES, with 6 losses in the latter and 7 in the former market, which amounts to about 75% of winners. We are very much up in both markets and made yet another new peak in the YM equity curve.

(12/18/14)

Trade #33: +60 (YM); +6.0 (ES). YTD: +602/+71.75 points. This was a long position and it reached the maximum target. As of now, we have had 27 trades in YM and 25 in ES, with 6 losses in the latter and 7 in the former market, which amounts to about 75% of winners. We are very much up in both markets and just made a new peak in the YM equity curve.

(12/12/14)

Trade #32: +60 (YM); no trade (ES). YTD: +542/+65.75 points. This trade was on the short side, there was no trade on in ES, due to some condition being violated prior to the entry, fortunately enough, as it would have been a loser. As of now, we have had 26 trades in YM and 24 in ES, with 6 losses in the latter and 7 in the former market. We are very much up in both markets.

(12/09/14)

Trade #31: -90 (YM); -9.0 (ES). YTD: +482/+65.75 points. These trades were on the short side. As of now, we have had 25 trades in YM and 24 in ES, with 6 losses in the latter and 7 in the former market. We are very much up in both markets.

(12/01/14)

No trade: we were very close to a short trade in ES, but one condition was not met, though it was a really close call. Things in YM were much more clear in this respect, suggesting no trade for more than one reason.

(11/21/14)

No trade: one condition, the same in both markets, that relatively often prevents the system from trading, was not met for the system to call a trade in either of the markets. That actually saved us some money, as much as 9 pts in ES and about 35 pts in YM. That's certainly good and it is precisely for such occasions (when a big loss can potentially be incurred) that this rule was designed for.

(11/12/14)

No trade: one condition, the same in both markets, that relatively often prevents the system from trading, was not met for the system to call a trade in either of the markets. That actually saved us some money, ca 4 pts in ES and about 55 pts in YM. If anything, this condition, usually referred to as the TBA rule, prevents us from overtrading, that is, taking trades that overall, at the very best, might produce only a small profit if the rule were not implemented and trading were allowed in such circumstances.

(11/05/14)

No trade: one condition, the same in both markets, was not met for the system to call a trade in either of them. That's too bad because it would have been a very good trade, reaching ca 4 pts in ES and a bit over 20 pts in YM. This may happen from time to time.

(10/31/14)

Trade #30: -29 (YM); no trade (ES). YTD: +572/+74.75 points. This unsuccessful trade in YM was on the long side. There was no trade in ES because of some rule (TBA) that prevented a possible trade, which would have been a small loss, anyway. As of now, we have had 24 trades in YM and 23 in ES, with 5 losses in the latter and 6 in the former market. We are very much up in both markets.

(10/23/14)

Trade #29: +60 (YM); +6.0 (ES). YTD: +601/+74.75 points. This was a long position and it reached the maximal profit targets of the system in both markets. As of now, we have had 23 trades in ES and in YM, with 5 losses in each market. We are considerably up in both markets and have reached new peaks in ES and YM equity curves.

(10/21/14)

Trade #28: no trade (YM); +6.0 (ES). YTD: +541/+68.75 points. This was a long position and it reached the maximal profit target of the system in ES. Unfortunately, the system did not meet one condition to call a trade in YM. Had this condition been met, we would have enjoyed the same success in YM. As of now, we have had 22 trades in ES and in YM, with 5 losses in each market. We are considerably up in both markets.

(10/17/14)

Trade #27: +4 (YM); -9.0 (ES). YTD: +541/+62.75 points. This was a long position that moved strongly against us in ES, but we managed to save it in YM thanks to a generous stop-loss, which was big enough to accomodate this adverse move. However, it was not big enough in ES. As of now, we have had 21 trades in ES and 22 YM, with 5 losses in both ES and YM. We are considerably up in both markets, and have reached a new peak in the YM equity curve.

(10/15/14)

Trade #26: +60 (YM); +6.0 (ES). YTD: +537/+71.75 points. This was a short trade that delivered full profits in both markets relatively quickly. As of now, we have had 20 trades in ES and 21 YM, with 4 and 5 losses in ES and YM, respectively. We are considerably up in both markets, and have reached new peaks in the ES and YM equity curves.

(10/07/14)

No trade: one condition, the same in both markets, was not met for the system to call a trade in either of them. That's too bad because it would have been a very good trade, reaching its full potential in both markets.

(10/03/14)

Trade #25: +60 (YM); +6.0 (ES). YTD: +477/+65.75 points. This was a long trade that delivered full profits in both markets relatively quickly. As of now, we have had 19 trades in ES and 20 YM, with 4 and 5 losses in ES and YM, respectively. We are considerably up in both markets, and have even reached a new peak in the ES equity curve, exceeding the previous peak by 1.5 points.

(9/29/14)

No trade: one condition (the TBA rule, for those familiar with the system), the same as last time, was not met for the system to call a trade in YM and in ES. One more condition, though in a much subtle manner, was not met in ES. However, the YM trade would have been maximally profitable reaching the target of 60 points, if executed according to the system rules. As would be the trade in ES, to the tune of 6 points, but in this case things were harder to call. It's important to note that this particular rule was not in the original system design. I added it later on to prevent trades that could go really bad. In other words, I wanted to avoid bigger losses, but as you can see, this can also impact the profits. There are always trade-offs like that in trading.

(9/23/14)

No trade: one condition was not met for the system to call a trade in YM, though in a somewhat borderline way. Things in ES were not that close at all. The trade in YM would have been maximally profitable reaching the target of 60 points if executed according to the system rules.

(8/28/14)

Trade #24: -24 (YM); no trade (ES). YTD: +417/+59.75 points. This trade in YM was a short. The system avoided a trade in ES (due to some condition not being met), which would have been a losing proposition as well. As of now, we have had 18 trades in ES and 19 in YM, with 4 and 5 losses in ES and YM, respectively. We are still considerably up in both markets, but treading water over the last 3 months or so. The markets lack a clear direction these days: while the bulls are still in charge, the global situation is not very much on their side.

(8/25/14)

Trade #23: -42 (YM); -4.5 (ES). YTD: +441/+59.75 points. This was a long position taken very much at the high of the daily session. As of now, we have had 18 trades in both ES and YM, 4 of which have been losses in each market. We are considerably up in both markets, but treading water over the last 3 months or so.

(8/19/14)

Trade #22: +7 (YM); no trade (ES). YTD: +483/+64.25 points. This was a long trade and it delivered profits at the close of the daily trading session. No trade in ES, as one condition was not met, though in a very borderline way. As of now, we have had 17 trades in both ES and YM, 3 of which have been losers in each market. We are very much up in both markets too.

(8/18/14)

No trade: one condition, the same for both markets, was not met for the system to call a trade, though in a borderline way in ES, so overall no trade in either market. The trades would have been only marginally profitable if taken.

(8/13/14)

Trade #21: no trade (YM); +1.25 (ES). YTD: +476/+64.25 points. This was a long trade and it delivered profits at the close of the daily trading session. No trade in YM, as one condition was not met. As of now, we have had 17 trades in ES, and 16 in YM, 3 of which have been losers in each market. We are considerably up in both markets.

(7/31/14)

Trade #20: +60 (YM); +6.0 (ES). YTD: +476/+63.00 points. This was a short position and it reached the maximum target rather easily, faster in ES than YM. As of now, we have had 16 trades in both ES and YM, 3 of which have been losers in each market. We are considerably up in both markets.

(7/25/14)

No trade: one condition, the same for both markets, was not met for the system to call a trade, though in a borderline way (especially in ES), so overall no trade in either market. This actually saved us some money. There was a bit of room for trading in the direction indicated by the system. The best way to handle this type of situations, when just a single condition prevents a mechanical call, is via discretionary trading and that's where KING should be very useful.

(7/23/14)

Trade #19: no trade (YM); -0.5 (ES). YTD: +416/+57.00 points. The system was not even remotely close to a trade in YM, but took a trade in ES. This was pretty accidental, the entry was very borderline, but still counts as one. Fortunately, the loss we suffered was very borderline (marginal) too. This was a long entry. As of now, we have had 15 trades in ES, 3 of which have been losers, the last three trades in a row, fortunately relatively small ones, smaller than the maximum profit we target in this market.

(7/22/14)

Trade #18: no trade (YM); -3.75 (ES). YTD: +416/+57.50 points. One condition (though marginally) was not met in YM for the system to call a trade, and hence no trade in this market, which saved us some money. No such luck in ES, where we lost nearly 4 points (still not that much) on a long trade while being slightly up most of the time.

(7/17/14)

No trade: one condition was not met for the system to call a trade in ES, so no trade in this market, and things were a bit more complex in the other one (YM), where there was no mechanical trade either. However, had you chosen to ignore this fact and had put on a trade as suggested by the system, you would have easily reached the 6 point target in ES (with plenty of room for some extra action in the same direction, which would have been short in this case). I mention this again, because when the system comes close to a mechanical call, yet misses it because of just one condition, that still is a strong suggestion that quite likely we are going to have a good volatility day and if the market is moving in the direction that complies with the system, you can reap benefits by aligning your trades in the same direction too. The best way to handle this type of situations (as mentioned in the previous entry, right below), is via discretionary trading and that's where KING comes in very handy.

(7/16/14)

No trade: one condition (the TBA rule, again, see my previous entries), the same for both markets, was not met for the system to call a trade, so overall no trade in either market. This actually "lost" us some money, but only ca 20/2 points in YM/ES, respectively, so nothing really to kill over. There was some room for trading in the direction indicated by the system, about 30 points in YM and about 4 points in ES, counting from the mechanical entry point. The best way to handle this type of situations (when the TBA rule or just some other single condition prevents a mechanical call), is via discretionary trading and that's where KING comes in very handy.

(7/14/14)

Trade #17: no trade (YM); -2.25 (ES). YTD: +416/+61.25 points. One condition (the TBA rule to those familiar with the system terminology), was not met in YM for the system to call a trade, and hence no trade in this market. This actually saved us some money (30 points) and that's the main purpose of this rule: to prevent trades that are likely to be losers, though it may eliminate the good trades too. Sadly, the same rule could not be applied to ES. I can't help but laugh considering that the very first loss in this market happened on the 13th trade. That evil 13 strikes again! But it was a pretty small loss, so no big deal, and we were bound to get a loss sooner or later, anyway. As good as George IV is, I have never claimed it to be a Holly Grail. There is no such thing.

(7/10/14)

No trade: one condition (the TBA rule to those familiar with the system terminology), the same for both markets, was not met for the system to call a trade, so overall no trade in either market. This actually saved us some money and that's the main purpose of this rule: to prevent trades that have a high potential to be losers, though sometimes it eliminates the good trades too. However, overall, it makes the equity curve smoother by getting rid of losers. I talk more about this rule on my main e-mini futures blog (the entry on 4/16/2014).

(7/08/14)

No trade: one condition, the same for both markets was not met for the system to call a trade, so overall no trade in either market.

(7/03/14)

Trade #16: no trade (YM); +2.5 (ES). YTD: +416/+63.5 points. One condition was not met for the system to call a trade in YM, so overall no trade in this market. The same condition was met in a borderline manner in ES and a long trade in this market resulted in a small win. Over 3/20 points were up for grabs from the entry points in ES/YM, respectively, when the market moved in our favor, so there was some room for discretionary scalps. Today's daily trading session was shortened, closing at 13:15 EST, due to the July 4th holiday that is tomorrow. All trades in ES (12 in total) have been winners so far this year!

(7/01/14)

No trade: one condition, the same for both markets was not met for the system to call a trade, so overall no trade in either market. But there was plenty of room for scalping in the direction indicated by the system, with over 40 points in YM and over 5 points in ES up for grabs as measured from the point of the system mechanical entry.

(6/20/14)

No trade: one condition, though different in each market, was not met for the system to call a trade (though pretty marginally in YM), so overall no trade in either market. This is actually good as the market volatility remains pretty low, and so do the chances for solid profits. This system is pretty conservative in that it trades mainly when the odds of success are good as evidenced by its results: still 11 winners in ES out of 11 trades in total!

(6/11/14)

Trade #15: -8 points (YM); no trade (ES). YTD: +416/+61.0 points. One condition (TBA) was not met (though in a very unusual, borderline way) for the system to call a trade in ES, so overall no trade in this market, and a short trade in YM resulted in a small loss. Over 3/30 points were up for grabs from the entry points in ES/YM, respectively, when the market moved in our favor, so there was some room for discretionary scalps. Out of 15 trades in YM, only 3 have been losers, mostly small ones. All trades in ES (11 in total) have been winners so far.

(6/06/14)

No trade: one condition was not met for the system to call a trade (though pretty marginally) in YM, so overall no trade, but very close to it in YM. It would be a winning trade to the tune of over 40 points, had you entered it at the time of system's mechanical entry and exited it at the market close at 4:15 EST.

(5/12/14)

Trade #14: +22 points (YM); +4.5 (ES). YTD: +424/+61.0 points. It was a long entry and the market slowly but steadily kept advancing in our favor and even though it did not reach the system targets, it still closed in a very positive territory. That's the 11th winner in ES out of 11 trades! That's also the 12th winner in YM out of 14 trades this year, which means the winning rate of about 85% in this market.

(5/05/14)

No trade: one condition was not met for the system to call a trade (though in a very borderline manner) in YM, and two conditions were not met in ES, so overall no trade, but very close to it in YM. It would be a losing proposition though, unless you chose to add to your position. In such a case, it was possible to make money by the market close at 4:15 EST.

(4/28/14)

Trade #13: -90 points (YM); no trade (ES). YTD: +402/+56.5 points. It was a long entry and the market moved strongly against us. That's the first maximum loss for this system. This entry was a bit borderline in some ways (which also explains why there was no trade in ES) and wrong in some other way (below the opening of today's daily session). However, given a slightly bigger stop-loss (120 points would be plenty), the system would have produced a pretty sound profit of ca 40 points by the market close coming only a few points shy off of its target of 60 points. So far, the balance on the YM trades that had no counterparts in ES (3 trades in total, even in a row) is negative to the tune of 50 points.

(4/25/14)

Trade #12: -20 points (YM); no trade (ES). YTD: +492/+56.5 points. It was a short entry and the market closed in the negative territory, though there was nearly 40 points up for grabs on the positive side of the entry and the system was slightly up 15 minutes before the close. That's the first losing trade in YM this year, but only a moderate loss compared to the biggest winners the system can deliver.

The image that follows, which is my only Twitter trading update that day embedded here for your convenience, shows my only trade on that day. Once again, I was able to capitalize nicely on the advantage that trading along with George IV gives you with a slightly larger position than usual, but not really that large in a grander scheme of things.

(4/16/14)

No trade: one condition (TBA to those familiar with the system terminology) was not met at some point for the system to call a trade, but had you used discretion, 6/60 points would have easily been for grabs in ES and in YM, respectively. I mentioned this on Twitter on the very same day and I mention it here to emphasize once again that there is plenty of room for high potential discretionary trading when using this system. Another situation like that took place on April 9th. More about it on my blog in a post of the same date as this entry.

(4/11/14)

Trade #11: +60 points (YM); no trade (ES). YTD: +512/+56.5 points. It was a short entry and the full target of 60 points in YM was reached this time, though there was no signal to trade in ES. That's the 11th winning trade in a row in YM this year!

(4/01/14)

Trade #10: +13 points (YM); +6 points (ES). YTD: +452/+56.5 points. It was a long entry and even if the full target of 60 points for YM was not reached this time, it's still another win. That's the 10th winning trade in a row this year!

(3/31/14)

Trade #9: +31 points (YM); +6 points (ES). YTD: +439/+50.5 points. It was a long entry and even if the full target of 60 points for YM was not reached this time, it's still another win. The system hit its target in YM, though, according to my data, but did not penetrate it, so I do not count it. That's the 9th winning trade in a row this year!

(3/17/14)

Trade #8: +30 points (YM); +6 points (ES). YTD: +408/+44.5 points. It was a long entry and even if the full target of 60 points for YM was not reached this time, it's still another win. The system came very close to its target in YM, though, within about 5 points. That's the 8th winning trade in a row this year!

(3/04/14)

Trade #7: +18 points (YM); +2.5 points (ES). YTD: +378/+38.5 points. It was a long entry and even if the full target of 60/6 points for YM/ES was not reached this time, it's still another win. That's the 7th winning trade in a row this year!

(3/03/14)

Trade #6: +60 points (YM); +6 points (ES). YTD: +360/+36 points. It was a short entry and the full target of 60/6 points for YM/ES was reached. That's the 6th winning trade in a row this year with all trades reaching their full profit potential. Quite remarkable.

(2/11/14)

No trade: one condition (STB to those familiar with the system terminology) was absent at some point for the system to call a trade, but had you used discretion, over 10 points would have been for grabs in ES and over 90 in YM. I mentioned this on Twitter on that very same day and I mention it here to emphasize once again that there is plenty of room for high potential discretionary trading when using this system.

(2/07/14)

Trade #5: +60 points (YM); +6 points (ES). YTD: +300/+30 points. It was a long entry and the full target of 60/6 points for YM/ES was reached. The entry in ES was more clearly defined than that in YM, but the system was originally designed for ES. It's surprising it works very well in YM too. That's the 5th winning trade in a row this year with all trades reaching their full profit potential. Quite remarkable.

(2/06/14)

No trade: one (rather subtle) condition (STB to those familiar with the system terminology) was absent at some point for the system to call a trade, but there was still room for over 50 YM points (and over 6 points in ES) on the long side had you executed a long at the point suggested by the system. A very tight stop of less than 20 YM ticks would do. I mention this just to emphasize that there is certainly room for discretionary trading when it comes to this system.

(1/31/14)

Trade #4: +60 points (YM); +6 points (ES). YTD: +240/+24 points. It was a short entry and the full target of 60/6 points for YM/ES was reached. Because of a deep market pullback the system came close to not giving a signal (on the short side, again) at all and the market bias determined by the system moving averages was gone within 30 minutes after the entry. This resulted in a somewhat precarious situation (a wide adverse swing of almost 60/6 points in YM/ES), but eventually the market moved down and the system reached its targets one more time this month. What follows is an image of a 5-minute YM chart of Sierra Chart that shows how George IV scored 60 points in this market.

George IV delivers 60 points in YM on January 31st, 2014

George IV - an e-mini trading system delivers 60 points in YM on January 31st, 2014

The image that follows, which is the last of my Twitter trading updates embedded, shows all my trades on that day. Once again, I was able to capitalize handsomely on the advantage that trading along with George IV gives you. Out of these 7 trades (all winners), many go beyond the 5 ticks per contract, the standard target of my trades. The first of them, a 25-pointer, was inspired by George IV, as was the 12-contract position. In the latter case, I chose to build my position betting on the market reversal and eventually ended up with a 15-pointer. It's yet another solid evidence how useful George IV can be for your discretionary trading, especially when used with KING. You can be more aggressive on days like that and hence more profitable as well.

(1/29/14)

No trade: one (rather subtle) condition (TBA to those familiar with the system terminology) was absent for the system to call a trade, but there was still room for over 100 YM points (or over 10 points in ES) on the short side had you executed a short at the time suggested by the system. I mention this just to emphasize that there is certainly room for discretionary trading when it comes to this system. See also my main futures blog (an entry at this date).

(1/24/14)

Trade #3: +60 points (YM); +6 points (ES). YTD: +180/+18 points. It was a short entry and the full target of 60/6 points for YM/ES was reached. I wrote more about this trade on my main e-mini futures blog under the same date. What follows is an image of a 5-minute YM chart of Sierra Chart that shows how George IV scored 60 points in this market.

George IV delivers 60 points in YM on January 24th, 2014

George IV - an e-mini trading system delivers 60 points in YM on January 24th, 2014

The image that follows, which is the last of my Twitter trading updates embedded, shows all my trades on that day. Once again, I was able to capitalize handsomely on the advantage that trading along with George IV gives you. Out of these 7 trades (all winners), only one is 5 ticks per contract, though it could have been a 10-pointer or even 20-pointer had I held my position a bit longer. It's one more evidence how useful George IV can be for your discretionary trading, especially when used with KING. Trading on a day when George IV gives you a signal is like shooting a fish in a barrel. Not that I encourage shooting defensless creatures, but I do eat fish.

(1/23/14)

Trade #2: +60 points (YM); +6 points (ES). YTD: +120/+12 points. It was a short entry and the full target of 60/6 points for YM/ES was reached. I wrote more about this trade on my main e-mini futures blog under the same date. What follows is an image of a 5-minute YM chart of Sierra Chart that shows how George IV scored 60 points in this market.

George IV delivers 60 points in YM on January 23rd, 2014

George IV - an e-mini trading system delivers 60 points in YM on January 23rd, 2014

The image that follows, which is the last of my Twitter trading updates embedded, shows all my trades on that day. As you can see from it, I was able to capitalize handsomely on the advantage that trading along with George IV gives you. Out of these 6 trades (all winners), not a single one is less than 10 ticks per contract, and the biggest one inspired by the George IV signal is 30 points (ticks). Notice that to get over $1000 I did not have to use more than 3 contracts per position, meaning I was trading with a pretty small size. This illustrates quite nicely why it makes sense to own George IV if you are a KING trader or even just any discretionary e-mini futures trader, as long as you trade YM or ES.

(1/02/14)

Trade #1: +60 points (YM); +6 points (ES). YTD: +60/+6 points. It was a short entry and the full target of 60/6 points for YM/ES was reached. I wrote more about this trade on my main e-mini futures blog under the same date. What follows is an image of a 5-minute YM chart of Sierra Chart that shows how George IV scored 60 points in this market.

George IV delivers 60 points in YM on January 2nd, 2014

George IV - an e-mini trading system delivers 60 points in YM on January 2nd, 2014